The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) again lowered its forecast for global rapeseed supply in its latest outlook – to an unexpectedly large extent.
According to the latest USDA forecast, world rapeseed production in the crop year 2021/22 will presumably amount to 68.17 million tonnes. Production was forecast down 1.8 million tonnes from the August estimate.
This translates to a 4.12 million tonne drop over the previous year and would be the lowest level in nine years. According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the EU-27 remains the biggest rapeseed producer.
Heat and extreme dryness in Canadian rapeseed producing regions was having a big impact on Canada's output.
Global consumption was also forecast down 0.76 million tonnes to 70.31 million tonnes. Reductions for China, Canada and the EU-27 were not offset by a higher consumption forecast for Japan.
The USDA put 2021/22 global ending stocks of rapeseed at 3.65 million tonnes. This would not only be a 40 per cent decline on the 2020/21 marketing season's ending stocks, but also the lowest level on record.
In the USDA outlook, exports were forecast down 0.55 million tonnes to 13.56 million tonnes from the previous month. Whereas Canada in particular will supply less due to the slump in production, the export outlook for the EU-27 was raised. Despite the declines, Canada is set to remain the main exporter with exports amounting to 5.8 tonnes.
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