According to the International Grains Council (IGC), slightly more rapeseed will be harvested worldwide in the upcoming crop year, while consumption is seen to remain virtually unchanged.
The ICG has forecast that the world's four largest rapeseed producers - Canada, the EU, China and India - will harvest more rapeseed in the 2021/22 crop year than the previous year.
According to the IGC estimate, global rapeseed production will rise from 70.4 million tonnes in 2020/21 to 72.8 million tonnes in 2021/22.
The IGC outlook is based on a 2% increase in area planted, but also on yield increases.
Global rapeseed consumption is seen to decline marginally compared to the previous year due to strong demand in Asia and Europe. However, it is set to remain at a high level.
Prospects for a bounceback in global rapeseed supply in 2021/22 appear to be poor considering the expected low level of beginning stocks and moderate growth in production.
Stocks of the three big exporters, Australia, Canada and Ukraine, are anticipated to shrink to 1 million tonnes (from 1.2 million tonnes the previous year). This is mainly due to the decline in stocks in Canada.
Prospects for world trade in from October to September will depend on demand from the EU-27 and key buyers in Asia, including China, Japan and Pakistan.
Harvest volumes in the EU-27 are seen to remain tentatively stable at 17.3 million tonnes in the 2021/22 crop year. Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH) has underlined that an expansion in area planted in the EU is the main prerequisite for improving supply to the European oil mills.
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