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HVO demand surges as tighter GHG quota rules reshape Germany’s diesel pool

HVO demand surges as tighter GHG quota rules reshape Germany’s diesel pool
Germany’s use of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) has climbed sharply in 2026, with the fuel now defining the country’s diesel‑blending trend.

UFOP reports that HVO consumption reached around 205,000 tonnes in the year to date, a substantial rise on the same period in 2025.

The association attributes the surge to several regulatory shifts: the increase in the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota from 10.6% in 2025 to 12% in 2026, the removal of double counting for certain waste‑based biofuels from 1 January 2026, and new rules preventing companies from using surplus quota fulfilment from previous years to meet current obligations.

UFOP stresses that the 7% statutory biodiesel blending cap under the diesel standard is the key driver pushing suppliers towards HVO.

Data from BAFA underline the scale of the shift. Biodiesel consumption in May 2026 held steady month‑on‑month at 263,600 tonnes, though it was nearly 39% higher than a year earlier.

HVO use, however, has accelerated dramatically: 270,700 tonnes were consumed in the first five months of 2026, far above the 64,900 tonnes recorded in the same period of 2025.

Total diesel consumption reached 2.4 million tonnes, up 16% on April. Combined biodiesel‑plus‑HVO blending hit 9.3%, two percentage points higher year‑on‑year, and exceeded 10% for the first time in April.

UFOP estimates that, on a linear basis, 2026 consumption could reach 0.65 million tonnes of HVO and 2.05 million tonnes of biodiesel. However, the association cautions that 2027 may not see the same growth trajectory.

Although the GHG quota will jump to 17.5%, mineral oil companies will be able to use unused quota volumes for offsetting. UFOP expects this to keep physical demand broadly in line with 2026 levels — a deliberate outcome of the Bundestag’s decision to bring forward quota increases for 2027 and 2028.

 


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