According to recent data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global palm oil production in 2025/26 is projected to reach a record 80.7 million tonnes, exceeding the previous year’s level by 3%.
The primary driver of this forecast is anticipated production increases in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Although Malaysian output is seasonally constrained, the USDA currently projects production at 20.2 million tonnes, up 820,000 tonnes year on year. Indonesia is expected to increase its production by 1.2 million tonnes to 46.7 million tonnes compared to the previous year.
Trade in palm oil has also grown over recent years. Around 45.6 million tonnes are expected to be shipped globally in 2025/26. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), this volume exceeds the previous year’s 45.3 million tonnes by just under 1%.
Global consumption is forecast to rise by approximately 4% compared to the previous season, reaching 77.7 million tonnes, and is expected to be fully met by global production. Against this backdrop, an increase in ending stocks is anticipated.
By the end of the marketing season, stocks are likely to grow by just over 4%, reaching approximately 15.3 million tonnes.
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