What will 2026 bring for the EU biofuels sector?

Leonidas Kanonis, director for communications and analysis, EWABA, outlines what he sees are the key factors that will help drive the sector this year.
If there is one lesson the waste-based and advanced biofuels industry has learned over the years, it is that stability is always just out of reach.
Every time the sector hopes for a calmer year, the policy and market landscape delivers a fresh set of challenges and opportunities.
2026 will be no exception. Yet unlike previous cycles, the year ahead could become a defining moment in aligning Europe’s decarbonisation ambitions with its desire for strategic autonomy and industrial resilience.
Several major developments of 2025 will carry over with full force into this year, shaping markets, certification processes and political debates.
They collectively point toward a more coherent, more pragmatic policy direction, even if significant uncertainties remain.

New revisions

The first cornerstone is the imminent revision of the Implementing Regulation on sustainability certification (IR 2022/996).
After years of concerns around inconsistent auditing practices and insufficient safeguards within parts of the system, the European Commission is preparing a revised instrument expected to strengthen certification rules, enhance traceability and provide long-awaited clarity for new Annex IX feedstocks - notably cover crops and intermediate crops.
These new feedstocks offer meaningful potential to reduce Europe’s dependency on imported raw materials, but only if certification becomes both robust and workable.
This move toward stronger certification ties into a broader policy shift that became evident throughout 2025: the EU is gradually acknowledging that decarbonisation cannot depend excessively on imports, or on a single technological pathway.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the Commission’s Automotive Package, which effectively ends the 2035 prohibition on registering new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
While the political debate will continue, the official recognition that low-carbon fuels - including waste-based and advanced biodiesel - have an ongoing role to play in road transport decarbonisation is significant.
It gives the industry a more stable policy horizon and opens a meaningful conversation about technology neutrality at a time when Europe is reassessing its industrial competitiveness.

On the greenhouse gas accounting front, the updated Annex V of REDIII - expected to be finalised this year - includes updated lifecycle values for TME and UCOME (waste-based biodiesel grades).
Following input from EWABA and industry partners, these now reflect more realistic emission factors compared to preliminary Commission indications. A fair representation of the performance of waste-based biodiesel strengthens the credibility of EU climate calculations and helps preserve the industry’s competitive position at a time when every gram of CO₂ reduction counts.

High seas

This year will also be an important preparatory year for the upcoming FuelEU Maritime revision in 2027.
Following extensive exchanges with the European Commission, there is growing recognition that the issue of non-EU bunkering needs to be addressed.
Allowing vessels to refuel outside the Union undermines both emissions reduction efforts and the competitiveness of EU producers.
Fixing this flaw will not be easy, but the institutional willingness to tackle it marks an important step forward.
Beyond maritime, the broader transport system continues to evolve. Higher biodiesel blends - B10 and above - are gaining increasing recognition among policymakers, OEMs and fuel suppliers as a fast, infrastructure-ready decarbonisation measure.
The momentum generated by the second European B+ Summit in Vienna showed that higher biodiesel blends are no longer a theoretical option; they are a practical, scalable solution that can deliver immediate greenhouse gas savings. Discussions around the future Fuel Quality Directive revision also indicate that the Commission is exploring pathways to allow higher blends more consistently across Member States, which could unlock additional volumes for the sector.

Fuel specifications

Equally important is the industry’s growing role in standardisation. EWABA’s strengthened presence in CEN and ISO technical committees ensures that waste-based biodiesel is properly reflected in the next generation of fuel specifications - including emerging marine fuel standards.
Standardisation rarely draws headlines, but it is foundational for long-term market stability and for safeguarding Europe’s technological leadership in renewable fuels.
Transparency will also take a central role in 2026. With the Union Database for Biofuels (UDB) approaching full operability after two successful industry pilots, the system is finally inching toward what policymakers envisioned: end-to-end digital traceability for biofuels across the value chain.
A functioning UDB will not only improve market oversight; it will help protect compliant operators from unfair practices and create a more predictable environment for investment.
Against this evolving regulatory backdrop, our industry continues to display remarkable resilience.

Increasing output

In 2024, EWABA members produced 2.23 million tonnes of waste-based and advanced biodiesel - a slight year-on-year increase despite the significant market headwinds.
Most striking is the surge in Annex IX Part A output, reaching 987,000 tonnes in 2024 compared with 653,000 tonnes in 2023 and only 410,000 tonnes in 2022. This extraordinary growth confirms that when policy signals are clear and stable, the sector responds with conviction.
Producers have also made major strides in diversifying feedstocks, optimising operations, and future-proofing their supply chains.
The era of relying on a single feedstock type or geographic origin is firmly behind us. Companies are expanding into lower-quality waste and residues, investing in new processing technologies, and tailoring supply routes to improve resilience. This quiet transformation - driven by engineers, sustainability teams, plant operators and logistical experts across Europe - is strengthening the sector at its core.
However, the industry cannot deliver on its full potential alone. What is urgently needed is predictability: steady and coherent rules, fair market conditions and a policy environment that rewards sustainable production within the Union rather than unintentionally incentivising imports.
Europe’s climate and industrial ambitions are compatible, but only if supported by a regulatory framework that recognises the value of domestic renewable fuel production.
The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) draft published by the European Commission this week is a unique opportunity to drive European industry revival focusing on ‘Made in Europe’ zero and low-carbon solutions.
As a proven technological solution often utilising novel waste and residues, waste-based and advanced biodiesel should be part of the IAA to further strengthen the bloc’s fuel security and domestic production.
2026 will be a pivotal year in determining whether Europe embraces this balanced path. The pieces are there: stronger certification rules, a renewed discussion on technology neutrality, higher blends gaining traction, upcoming reviews in maritime and fuel legislation and growing interest in reinforcing the EU’s industrial base as part of a broader competitiveness agenda.
Our members have done the hard work - investing, adapting, and continuing to deliver high-quality renewable fuels under challenging conditions.
The industry stands ready once again. What we need now is the stable, pragmatic policy framework that will allow Europe’s waste-based and advanced biofuels sector to play its full and rightful role in the continent’s decarbonisation and energy independence.

For more information: Visit ewaba.eu