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Volatility in oilseed market due to Ukraine war

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EU oilseed production is likely to exceed the previous year's level by only 0.4% in the current crop year, although the oilseed area is expected to rise 5%.
The reason is prospective lower yields due to constraints on means of production.
According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to massive volatility in the oilseed market.
This includes the additional sharp rise in production costs such as energy, fertilisers and crop protection products.
Production will also depend on future weather conditions - sowing and growing conditions have previously been favourable for all oilseed crops until well into spring.
According to information published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the EU oilseed area in 2022/23, which is currently forecast at 11.67 million hectares, will be just under than 5% larger than the previous year, whereas the increase in output is seen to be small.
The FAS has forecast production in the coming crop year at around 31.07 million tonnes. However, this would only be up 0.4% on the 2021/22 season. The main reason for the marginal increase is seen to be a prospective sharp drop in yields.
Average sunflower yields are expected to fall significantly short of the previous year's record due to the shortage in means of production such as energy, fertilisers and crop protection products.
The currently high costs for means of production are contrasted by attractive producer prices and a high value in crop rotation. In some regions, this could lead to an expansion in soybean production.