USDA reports growth in soybean output

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The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects global soybean production in 2022/23 to reach around 391.2 million tonnes in its latest report.
This is up 0.6 million tonnes on the November 2022 estimate. The figure translates to an expected increase of 35.6 per cent on the previous marketing year.
According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the upward revision is based on the raised forecast for India, which is seen to harvest around 12 million tonnes of soybeans in the current season.
In November, the USDA had anticipated 11.5 million tonnes. The forecast for Canada was raised marginally 43,000 tonnes to 6.5 million tonnes. In contrast, the USDA held on to previous estimates for key producing countries such as Brazil, the US and Argentina.

Based on a presumably larger global availability of soybeans, the USDA also expects consumption to increase in 2022/23.
Soybean processing is estimated at 380.9 million tonnes, up 0.7 million tonnes from the previous month's forecast. In 2021/22, demand was 17.5 million tonnes lower at 363.4 million tonnes.

Consequently, ending stocks are likely to rise 0.5 million tonnes to 102.7 million tonnes compared to the November forecast. This means that global ending stocks would exceed the previous year's volume by 7.1 million tonnes.
The increase is primarily based on raised estimates for Brazil to 31.7 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes from the November forecast) and the EU to 1.7 million tonnes (+0.3 million tonnes). It can more than offset the decline in Argentine ending stocks of 0.5 million tonnes to 23.5 million tonnes.

The USDA also sees world trade in soybeans higher than the previous month, though only minimally. At presumably 169.4 million tonnes, shipments are up 0.2 million tonnes on the November estimate. This translates to a 15.6 million tonne rise compared to 2021/22.


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