Rapeseed harvest set to hit all-time global high

Global oilseed production is poised to reach another record this season, fuelled by bumper rapeseed crops and rising output of palm kernel and sunflower seed.

These gains are expected to more than offset the projected fall in soybean supply.

Following the provisional end of the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released fresh estimates for global oilseed production.

According to the agency, output for the 2025/26 crop year is forecast to reach around 688.0 million tonnes, up 0.6% year on year.

The USDA also expects global oilseed processing to climb to a new high of 578.4 million tonnes, an increase of 12.3 million tonnes compared with 2024/25.

Global ending stocks are projected at 142.3 million tonnes, about 0.6 million tonnes above last year.

In contrast, world trade in oilseeds is expected to remain largely unchanged at 214.5 million tonnes.

The ongoing US–China trade dispute has significantly hit US soybean shipments in recent weeks.

It remains unclear whether the USDA’s expectation of a rebound in US exports to China will materialise in the current financial year’s trade balance.

The rapeseed harvest is forecast to reach 92.3 million tonnes this crop year — an all-time high and a rise of more than 7% year on year.

Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH) attributes the increase primarily to higher production in the EU, Canada and Russia.

Global palm kernel production is also expected to rise nearly 4%, reaching 21.1 million tonnes. A similar increase is projected for sunflower seed output, which is set to total 54.3 million tonnes.

By contrast, world soybean production is anticipated to fall 1.3% to 421.8 million tonnes, driven mainly by declines in the US, Argentina, India and Ukraine.

The USDA’s oilseed estimate also includes peanuts (around 51.3 million tonnes), cottonseed (around 41.5 million tonnes) and copra (5.9 million tonnes), among other oil crops.