Global soybean production forecast to go down
The International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its forecast of global soybean production in anticipation of large declines in yield in South America.
Consumption, ending stocks and world trade were also forecast to be down.
The IGC lowered its estimate of global soybean production in the current crop year significantly in its latest monthly report.
Production is expected at 350 million tonnes, which is down just over 3 million tonnes from the previous month's estimate and just less than 19 million tonnes from the previous year's volume.
The main reason for the cut was lower harvest outlooks for Argentina and Brazil, which will considerably reduce the availability.
Continued hot and dry growing conditions led the IGC to make this adjustment, although harvests in the northern hemisphere were abundant, with the US recording a record crop.
In the light of the tight supply situation the IGC also lowered the forecast of global soybean consumption. Consumption in the current crop year is projected at 362 million tonnes.
This would translate to a 5 million tonne decline on the previous crop year. Some countries, like China and the US, are expected to see a slight increase in consumption, which is seen to be outweighed by a potential decrease in South America.
The demand forecast for China does not yet take into account the potential implications of the corona lockdown recently imposed on Shanghai, a metropolis with a population of 26 million people.
In conjunction with its reduced harvest estimate, the IGC also lowered its outlook for global ending stocks 2021/22.
At 42 million tonnes, the forecast is down just over 1 million tonnes from February. Compared to the previous crop year, this would translate to a decline of just under 22% or 12 million tonnes. According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the decrease is largely due to a sharp drop in stocks in Argentina and Brazil.
Consumption, ending stocks and world trade were also forecast to be down.
The IGC lowered its estimate of global soybean production in the current crop year significantly in its latest monthly report.
Production is expected at 350 million tonnes, which is down just over 3 million tonnes from the previous month's estimate and just less than 19 million tonnes from the previous year's volume.
The main reason for the cut was lower harvest outlooks for Argentina and Brazil, which will considerably reduce the availability.
Continued hot and dry growing conditions led the IGC to make this adjustment, although harvests in the northern hemisphere were abundant, with the US recording a record crop.
In the light of the tight supply situation the IGC also lowered the forecast of global soybean consumption. Consumption in the current crop year is projected at 362 million tonnes.
This would translate to a 5 million tonne decline on the previous crop year. Some countries, like China and the US, are expected to see a slight increase in consumption, which is seen to be outweighed by a potential decrease in South America.
The demand forecast for China does not yet take into account the potential implications of the corona lockdown recently imposed on Shanghai, a metropolis with a population of 26 million people.
In conjunction with its reduced harvest estimate, the IGC also lowered its outlook for global ending stocks 2021/22.
At 42 million tonnes, the forecast is down just over 1 million tonnes from February. Compared to the previous crop year, this would translate to a decline of just under 22% or 12 million tonnes. According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the decrease is largely due to a sharp drop in stocks in Argentina and Brazil.
Loading ...
