Ethanol surplus for 2010
Next year will see a worldwide ethanol surplus of over half a billion litres.
A modest global ethanol surplus of around 700 million litres is set to come in during 2010, according to F.O. Licht analysis.
Total consumption in the US, Europe, Asia could increase to 76.4 billion litres, while supply is estimated at around 77.1 billion.
Referring to the modest global ethanol surplus expected in 2010, F.O. Licht managing director Christoph Berg says: ‘This surplus is desperately needed in order to maintain the supply chain.
Ethanol demand continues to grow and therefore we need surpluses in order to keep the stocks-to-use ratio unchanged.
Global ethanol manufacturing capacity is expected to rise by 4% this year on 2008 figures.
A poorer than expected Brazilian cane crop due to recent heavy rains will cut ethanol output forecasts by 2 billion litres compared with previous
predictions, Berg adds.
He predicts growth in Brazilian ethanol consumption is likely to fall year-on-year in 2010, in part due to higher ethanol prices in Brazil this year compared with 2008. Brazilian mills would prefer to produce sugar rather than ethanol because of the high sugar price, into next year and possibly into the 2010/11 crop year, he adds.
A modest global ethanol surplus of around 700 million litres is set to come in during 2010, according to F.O. Licht analysis.
Total consumption in the US, Europe, Asia could increase to 76.4 billion litres, while supply is estimated at around 77.1 billion.
Referring to the modest global ethanol surplus expected in 2010, F.O. Licht managing director Christoph Berg says: ‘This surplus is desperately needed in order to maintain the supply chain.
Ethanol demand continues to grow and therefore we need surpluses in order to keep the stocks-to-use ratio unchanged.
Global ethanol manufacturing capacity is expected to rise by 4% this year on 2008 figures.
A poorer than expected Brazilian cane crop due to recent heavy rains will cut ethanol output forecasts by 2 billion litres compared with previous
predictions, Berg adds.
He predicts growth in Brazilian ethanol consumption is likely to fall year-on-year in 2010, in part due to higher ethanol prices in Brazil this year compared with 2008. Brazilian mills would prefer to produce sugar rather than ethanol because of the high sugar price, into next year and possibly into the 2010/11 crop year, he adds.
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