Volume 5, Issue 1
Published: February 15, 2011
Soyabean supply, demand and trends
There is no crystal ball, and in commodities the only certainty is uncertainty. This being said there are some compelling conclusions that can be drawn from the trends of the last 10 to 15 years. First, soyabean production has risen mostly due to an upward trend in average crop yield. Second, soyabean demand has also consistently risen in the past 10 years. Finally, the average price of soyabeans has risen as well. The task at hand is to look at what these factors mean for soyabeans and the legitimacy of soya oil as a feedstock for biodiesel. Supply trends World soyabean production numbers have been trending higher, but there have been some disappointing years in the mix as well. Due to the sensitivity of weather during the growing season, and especially during the pod setting phase of growth, soyabean production can vary greatly from year to year. Increasing trend line yields, as well as small increases in US acreage, along with South American proliferation have been contributing factors in overall growth in production potential. South America may hold the key to future supply growth. US production will continue to rise slightly due to increasing trend line yield and greater efficiency, but large scale acreage increases are unlikely. Brazil and Argentina have significant potential for growth but thus far there has been a lack of interest and/or means to develop the infrastructure needed to accommodate a large scale increase in production.
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