Best way forward for the EU road transport sector – will the internal combustion engine survive?

EWABA’s Government Affairs Director Dasa Mamrillova looks at the best way forward for the EU road transport sector and she poses the question - will the internal combustion engine survive?
As the future policy making influenced by various new trends and black swans is often so unpredictable, it is time to look into the crystal ball and guess how the future road transport will look like?
Yes, emission free. This is what is wished for, no matter how much pro-green or pro-industry we appear to be.
However, it is time to be both - the transport should not only be green, but also affordable and competitive. All of these three factors matter equally.
Killing the EU economy by making it non-competitive by over-regulating and retaining widely open free trade will not save the planet, but it will rather lead to devastating effects for European industry.
As the EU counts for just 6-8% emissions worldwide, if we kill our industry for the sake of ‘saving the planet’, will we actually ‘save the planet’ and achieve anything meaningful?

Road transport policy

The most important benchmark for shaping the future road transport policy should be pure rationality, common sense and decisions based on proper fact analysis using the same criteria for the evaluation of different technologies. This is what is called technology neutrality, a term luckily used once again by the European Commission when speaking about the face of the EU’s transport industry in the upcoming decades.
Over the years there has been huge overreliance on electromobility as the holy grail, which will save the transport sector - no matter if the industry is ready, if there is enough raw materials and proper infrastructure, and last but not least, no matter what so long as customers are ready and able to pay for it.
Electromobility has been showcased as the only zero emission technology, but is it really?
If we are only taking tailpipe emissions into consideration, then this claim could be true? However, if we pretend that emissions from the production of electricity, its transportation, production and liquidation of batteries do not exist, then we are building a fake narrative which will, sooner rather than later, unravel.

For the sake of technological neutrality and the best possible pathway to decarbonise EU road transport ¬– is the internal combustion engine sentenced to death, or does it still have a chance of surviving?
Luckily there has been a lot of noise on this lately following the European election, with more voices asking to revise its 2035 conviction.
The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appealed for technology neutrality in her mission letter to Commissioner designate for Climate Wopke Hoekstra and the Draghi Report on European competitiveness, which can be used as a guidance on future policymaking as it criticises current policies for not respecting the technological neutrality principle in the automotive sector.

Setting targets

This was certainly the case of CO2 standards for both cars and vans and CO2 standards for heavy duty vehicles, which set strict targets for automotive producers aiming to 100% CO2 reduction in 2035 for light duty and 90% in 2040 for heavy duty, achievable via electromobility only.
The car industry has started to be vocal over the preliminary targets to cut emissions by 15% in 2025 from a 2021 baseline which it says are unachievable. According to the latest ICCT study this will require an increase in the share of electric vehicles by 12% on average.
Car producers could face fines of €15 billion for excess carbon emissions if these targets are not met due to much slower demand than anticipated for electric vehicles.
EU auto manufacturers association ACEA sent an open letter to the European Commission calling for “urgent relief measures”, which means an immediate review of the regulation instead of waiting for official deadlines in 2026 and 2027.
Car manufacturers claim to miss crucial conditions in order to reach the necessary boost in the production of ‘zero-emission vehicles’, pointing out gaps in recharging and hydrogen infrastructure, green energy, raw materials, batteries and other structural issues.
Earlier revision is also requested by several member states under the leadership of traditional car manufacturer - Italy.
Lastly, within the halls of the European Parliament, an earlier revision is supported by the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest political group under the current Parliament’s composition.

Banning internal combustion engines and completely transforming the automotive industry is exactly the policy direction that will weaken EU industry, economy and, ultimately, its citizens.
The European Commission along with member states have to be upfront and admit that this ban was pre-emptive and not fully aligned with real life conditions.
The European industry is hurting on the back of weak competitiveness and regulatory incentives, increased global competition, mostly from China, and the US and high energy costs post-Covid 19 enhanced by the invasion of Ukraine.
The CO2 Emission Standards revision will certainly be a key takeaway for the future and should support all fuels that can contribute to the EU's energy transition, industrial competitiveness and economic prosperity.

New pathways

Renewable fuels such as biofuels and e-fuels must be enabled to count against the CO2 emission targets in order to accelerate decarbonisation and offer a wider variety of solutions for affordable mobility.
Biofuels are the only renewable fuels commercially available at scale that can be used across the majority of existing fleets with no additional infrastructure investment needed.
Reality is that we have lost precious time when it comes to using higher biofuel blends to reduce emissions in the road transport sector.
The existing CO2 regulations open the door for the inclusion of renewable fuels via the definition of CO2 neutral fuels, for cars and trucks running exclusively on CO2 neutral fuels in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) and heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sectors.
This definition should include all sustainable renewable fuels according to the sustainability criteria set in the Renewable Energy Directive including biofuels and e-fuels.
Stakeholders from both the broad automotive value chain including OEMs, fuel suppliers, and retailers have established a Working Group on Monitoring Methodologies, also known as the Stuttgart Group, which aims to include and represent the entire road transport sector, including stakeholders from the LDV, HDV and off-road transport industry.
It aims to provide the European Commission with a comprehensive report of all potential mechanical and digital solutions for monitoring the use of CO2 neutral fuels in new vehicles by the end of 2024, including the optimal definition of CO2 neutral fuels.

To avoid any divisions between member states and the EU institutions, European policymakers have to better understand the needs and promote the interests of their citizens.
Electric vehicles should be promoted further, but by no means should one technology make another one redundant, especially when ICEs have boosted the economy and industry for so many decades and can further reduce emissions by achieving higher efficiency.
It is also clearly stated in the Draghi Report that in order to capitalise on the decarbonisation push, Europe should refocus its support for clean tech manufacturing, focusing on technologies where it has a lead.

Conclusion

The EU has a duty of not allowing a narrative that is misleading its citizens, for example, the so-called narrative that electric vehicles are zero-emission vehicles. This is not accurate and it can never be.
Already in several member states, companies are paying fines for misleading customers when it comes to emissions from electric vehicles.
The public is very well informed about the risks of betting on one fuel solution (that is relying on natural gas from Russia that has had devastating effects for the European economy, industry and for disposable income).
Moving forwards, the narrative should be shifted to align with the EU citizens' climate priorities - energy security, energy poverty, energy transition - these three are interlinked and should move hand in hand.
Until recently, energy transition was the only one that was really highlighted by EU institutions and this needs to change swiftly.





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