International Grains Council sees soybean stocks rise
The International Grains Council (IGC) has estimated global supply of soybeans to be lower - but still at a record level.
Although demand for soybeans continues to grow all round the world compared to the previous year, supplies have grown even stronger than previously expected.
In its latest report, the International Grains Council (IGC) adjusted its estimate of global soy supply 2022/23 downwards by 2 million tonnes to 387 million tonnes.
Nevertheless, supply in the current crop year is likely to reach a record high, surpassing the previous year's level by just less than 10%.
The main reason for the adjustment was lower US crop expectations. US soybean production is projected at around 119.2 million tonnes, 4.1 million tonnes lower than previous expectations.
Poor growing conditions have recently reduced the yield potential considerably. Moreover, the US area planted with soybeans will probably be smaller than forecast in August.
The recent rainfall in some regions, however, is seen to be potentially favourable for late-season crops.
By contrast, the estimate for Brazilian soy supply was raised to 146 million tonnes, up around 1 million tonnes from the previous month's forecast. The increase is mainly based on a presumably 3% expansion in area. Ukraine is also expected to harvest more soybeans this year – 3.6 million tonnes, which would be up 0.7 million tonnes.
Global soybean consumption is currently estimated at 378 million tonnes. This is down 1 million tonnes on the August outlook, but 4.3% higher than 2021/22. Demand is expected to see a sharp increase, especially in China, but equally in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
In view of the bumper soybean crop, 2022/23 ending stocks are also likely to grow. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, this would result in a global soybean surplus of 9 million tonnes.
Although demand for soybeans continues to grow all round the world compared to the previous year, supplies have grown even stronger than previously expected.
In its latest report, the International Grains Council (IGC) adjusted its estimate of global soy supply 2022/23 downwards by 2 million tonnes to 387 million tonnes.
Nevertheless, supply in the current crop year is likely to reach a record high, surpassing the previous year's level by just less than 10%.
The main reason for the adjustment was lower US crop expectations. US soybean production is projected at around 119.2 million tonnes, 4.1 million tonnes lower than previous expectations.
Poor growing conditions have recently reduced the yield potential considerably. Moreover, the US area planted with soybeans will probably be smaller than forecast in August.
The recent rainfall in some regions, however, is seen to be potentially favourable for late-season crops.
By contrast, the estimate for Brazilian soy supply was raised to 146 million tonnes, up around 1 million tonnes from the previous month's forecast. The increase is mainly based on a presumably 3% expansion in area. Ukraine is also expected to harvest more soybeans this year – 3.6 million tonnes, which would be up 0.7 million tonnes.
Global soybean consumption is currently estimated at 378 million tonnes. This is down 1 million tonnes on the August outlook, but 4.3% higher than 2021/22. Demand is expected to see a sharp increase, especially in China, but equally in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
In view of the bumper soybean crop, 2022/23 ending stocks are also likely to grow. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, this would result in a global soybean surplus of 9 million tonnes.
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