Global biofuel demand to grow 20% in next five years

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its Renewables 2022 Analysis at the end of last year.

Renewables 2022 included analysis on the renewable energy sector, including developments and trends for transportation, including increasingly ambitious energy targets in the European Union (EU), growth in ethanol consumption in Brazil, biofuel blending in India and global feedstock availability to meet the rise of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

“In this most recent IEA report, total global biofuel demand is estimated to increase more than 20% between 2020 and 2027, and world ethanol consumption is projected to rise in an accelerated case scenario,” said Isabelle Ausdal, USGC manager of global ethanol policy and economics.
“This reinforces the US industry’s recognition of ethanol’s importance as a tool for countries to accelerate their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and underscores the importance of scaling up technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) to reach net zero carbon intensity.”

According to IEA’s report, ethanol consumption in Europe is expected to remain steady at 2021 levels, with the most significant growth in the United Kingdom where consumption is projected to expand by more than 50% to meet its Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) and national E10 blending.
Recognition was also given to the UK, Finland and the Netherlands for national E10 blending and the increase in popularity of flex fuel vehicles in France.

While remaining steady in the EU, increased ethanol consumption is forecasted to occur largely in emerging economies aiming to reduce oil imports and boost local economies, while also helping to reduce GHG emissions.
IEA projects overall demand for biofuel in Brazil to expand by 40% between 2022 and 2027, with ethanol accounting for 70% of this change. This is attributed to Brazil’s ethanol mandate, discretionary blending, RenovaBio programme and increasing gasoline demand.