Ethanol evolution

Global biofuel demand is expected to surge, with the IEA projecting a 23% increase by 2028.
Renewable diesel and ethanol are expected to account for two-thirds of this growth with new regulations such as FuelEU stimulating uptake.
However, the domestic outlook for US ethanol appears more uncertain due to the acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) adoption — despite potential headwinds from federal policy.
Although the national goal to have 50% of new electric vehicles by 2050 was revoked at the beginning of this year, market analysts suggest that EV demand will continue to grow in line with overall market expansion.
State-led initiatives — particularly California’s Advanced Clean Cars II programme, which requires 100% of new vehicle sales to be zero-emission by 2035 — are gaining traction in 11 additional states, including the major vehicle markets of New York and Massachusetts.
These will play a key role in shaping the future fuel landscape. Along with improved vehicle efficiency, the continued penetration of EVs into road transport will reduce demand for ethanol as a petrol-blending agent.
To remain competitive and...