The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its global harvest estimate and foreign trade forecast for soybeans over the next year.
According to the USDA estimate, global soybean production in the marketing year 2022/23 is set to reach 395.4 million tonnes.
This is up 680,000 tonnes on the previous month's estimate and up 12.3% from 2021/22.
The key reason for expectations of a bumper crop was prospects of increased soy supply in Ukraine, although forecasts from this region should be viewed with caution due to the continuing war.
The USDA expects Ukrainian soybean production at around 2.8 million tonnes, which would be 500,000 tonnes more than previously expected, but nevertheless 1 million tonnes fewer than 2021/22.
The estimates for Brazil and Argentina remained unchanged from the previous month at 149 million tonnes and 51 million tonnes respectively.
In view of the larger supply of soybeans, 2022/23 world trade is also expected to significantly exceed the previous year's volume.
More specifically, the USDA put exports at 170.3 million tonnes, up 420,000 tonnes from the May forecast and 9.2% from the level in 2021/22.
As a consequence of higher yields, the USDA revised Argentine soybean output 2021/22 upward 1.4 million tonnes to 43.4 million tonnes. According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the same applies to Brazilian production in 2021/22.
Currently forecast at 126 million tonnes, Brazilian soy production is seen 1 million tonnes higher than in the May forecast.
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