The International Grain Council (IGC) is expecting the world’s rapeseed harvest to reach about 69.8 million tonnes in the 2020/21 crop year.
This would be up only 200,000 tonnes year-on-year, but 400,000 tonnes more than projected in August.
According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, the growth in output is based on larger rapeseed harvests both in the EU-27 together with the UK, Australia and China than the previous year.
The increase in output in Australia has an especially strong impact. The country expects to harvest 3.3 million tonnes, approximately 43% more than 2019/20.
The increase will more than offset the declines forecast for Ukraine and Canada.
Global rapeseed consumption will probably reach 70.7 million tonnes in the current crop year, thus exceeding the previous year's level by 400,000 tonnes.
The main reason is the higher consumption forecast for China of 16.3 million tonnes. Chinese demand for processing uses is growing. By contrast, consumption in the EU-27 plus UK is expected to decline 0.3% to 22.2 million tonnes.
Since global consumption is expected to outstrip production for the third year running in 2020/21, this will be at the expense of global supplies.
Ending stocks for the current crop year are expected to amount to 5 million tonnes. This would be down 0.8 million tonnes on 2019/20 and 1.6 million tonnes on 2018/19.
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