The European Commission planned to publish its legislative proposal on indirectland use change (ILUC) effects of biofuels by July 2011 based on an impact assessment that examines four different options of how to best address ILUC.
ILUC is a phenomenon that cannot be directly observed or measured so its effects need to be estimated through modelling. Therefore, much of the debate focuses on the ‘right’ scientific basis for the ILUC policy. While the ILUC modelling evolves, the Commission asked the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington, US, to look into the issue. IFPRI’s earlier study published in 2010 has now been refined throughout the year and serves as the basis for the impact assessment the Commission is about to complete. IFPRI used, as they call it themselves, a ‘slightly updated version’ ofthe MIRAGE model and a new scenario based on what member states indicated the volume of biofuels to be used would be in the near future.